(Updates to wrap up opening ceremony)
RIYADH (Thomson Financial) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez tonight kicked off the Third OPEC Summit with a stark warning about the price of oil in times of conflict.
In his opening address to leaders and delegates of the powerful 13-member group, Chavez ominously warned that oil -- currently camped out just below 100 usd a barrel -- could hit 200 usd if the US continues with its aggressive stance against either Iran or Venezuela.
"If the United States was mad enough to attack Iran or threaten Venezuela again the price of a barrel of oil could reach 150 usd or even 200 usd," Chavez said, describing 100 usd as a "just" and "fair" price.
Referring to the US, Chavez also suggested OPEC should "ask the most powerful nation in the world to stop threatening OPEC". Oil was the basis of all aggression, he said, referring to the war in Iraq and US threats against Iran.
Chavez also called for OPEC to take on a more political role in the world, in order to safeguard member states' security and economic interests.
Chavez's stern words follow a pre-summit OPEC ministerial meeting that saw Venezuela and Iran yesterday take a tilt at the weak US dollar -- it has fallen 15 pct in the past 12 months -- and call for OPEC to address the issue in its end-of-summit declaration.
They called on OPEC, which produces about 40 pct of the world's oil, to formally state their concerns over the soft dollar, a possible step towards pricing oil in different currencies.
Other members -- who also voiced concern about the the currency's slide -- saw such a move as too risky given the current nervous economic climate and voted overwhelmingly -- sources put the vote at 10-2 -- against it.
OPEC Secretary General Abdallah salam el-Badri said of dollar weakness after Friday's closed-door meeting: "It is our concern, but it will not be in the final (summit) declaration."
He added: "We discussed it in the Members' Secretariat but it is (individual) member country policy."
Sources are now saying the differing views within OPEC about the dollar will likely be sorted out via diplomatic channels over coming months. OPEC is largely dominated by pro-Western Gulf states.
Speaking shortly after Chavez tonight, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah took a more moderate approach.
"Oil is an energy for construction and must not become an instrument for conflict," King Abdullah said, arguing OPEC had always been a fair organisation.
"If we were to factor in fluctuation and inflation it would not have reached its actual price of the 1980s," King Abdullah said of current oil prices.
The King also said Saudi Arabia is to put aside 300 mln usd to fund research into climate change research.
Meanwhile, Chavez tonight added that "OPEC must change and become a much stronger player in the geopolitical and geo-economic domains".
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Paper: Blair Sees Palestinian Jobs Projects Ready Soon -AFP
Paper: Blair Sees Palestinian Jobs Projects Ready Soon -AFP PARIS (AFP)--
Special Middle East peace envoy Tony Blair said in an interview published Sunday that he hopes to announce within days projects to create jobs for tens of thousands of Palestinians. Blair told France's Journal du Dimanche that the projects would represent tens of thousands of jobs for Palestinians who have faced widespread unemployment since Israel closed the border to most workers following the launch of the second intifada in 2000. With an international meeting on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict due to take place in Annapolis, Md., on Nov. 27, the former U.K. prime minister said the peace process is credible. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who also took part in the interview, said he "shared the optimism, even if it is always risky to be optimistic." "Nobody is saying Annapolis will be anything other than the beginning of a process, but its start would even be a success, maybe fragile," he was quoted as saying by the newspaper. Blair said he believes the main problem today is that the Israelis won't give their agreement to the creation of a Palestinian state until they are certain it will be governed properly and security ensured. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 17, 2007 22:30 ET (03:30 GMT)
Special Middle East peace envoy Tony Blair said in an interview published Sunday that he hopes to announce within days projects to create jobs for tens of thousands of Palestinians. Blair told France's Journal du Dimanche that the projects would represent tens of thousands of jobs for Palestinians who have faced widespread unemployment since Israel closed the border to most workers following the launch of the second intifada in 2000. With an international meeting on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict due to take place in Annapolis, Md., on Nov. 27, the former U.K. prime minister said the peace process is credible. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who also took part in the interview, said he "shared the optimism, even if it is always risky to be optimistic." "Nobody is saying Annapolis will be anything other than the beginning of a process, but its start would even be a success, maybe fragile," he was quoted as saying by the newspaper. Blair said he believes the main problem today is that the Israelis won't give their agreement to the creation of a Palestinian state until they are certain it will be governed properly and security ensured. (END) Dow Jones NewswiresNovember 17, 2007 22:30 ET (03:30 GMT)
Forex Weekly Review and Outlook − Focus on FOMC and BoE Minutes in a Quiet Week
Forex Weekly Review and Outlook
Focus on FOMC and BoE Minutes in a Quiet Week
Sterling was hit hard across the board last week on renewed expectation for further rate cut from BoE after dovish Inflation Report. Canadian dollar also corrected sharply, following retreat in oil prices. Carry trade unwinding, though calmed down a bit, still dragged down commodity currencies. Though, the yen ended the week mixed, weakening against Euro and dollar. Swissy was more impressive this time as it strengthened broadly. The economic calendar is relatively light this week, with market holiday in US and Japan. Nevertheless, FOMC minutes and new projections as well as BoE minutes will be featured, together with important data from US and Canada.
During the week, Fed announced the plan to improve its transparency to the markets. Firstly, the committee will double of the frequency of publishing its projections from twice a year to four times a year. Secondly, in addition to core PCE, GDP and unemployment, Fed will include headline PCE in the projection forecasts. Thirdly, the forecast horizon will be extended to three year from two. Even though a formal inflation target will be not adopted at this moment, the act is viewed as a step towards such adoption. Bernanke's emphasis on headline inflation raised some doubts on whether Fed will cut rates in Dec as markets expected. And there is further doubt after comments from Kroszner and Poole. Kroszner said that economic indicators in the coming months will reflect a "rough patch" However, that is not enough to guarantee additional rate cuts. Poole said that Fed must lead, but not follow the markets on rate policy. Even though subprime problem take time to resolve, he doesn't expect a recession yet and he doubts the need for more rate cuts. The first report will be released along with the FOMC minutes this week and will be closely watched.
Both CPI and PPI reports showed increased inflation risks in US. Headline CPI climbed from 2.8% yoy to 3.5% yoy with core CPI up from 2.1% yoy to 2.2% yoy in Oct. The usually volatile PPI was up from 4.4% yoy to 6.1% yoy with core PPI up from 2.0% yoy to 2.5% yoy. Retail sales rose 0.2% mom with ex auto sales rising 0.2% mom in Oct, not far from consensus expectation. Pending home sales surprised on the upside, recovering by 0.2% in Sep. Both NY State and Philly Fed survey beat expectation in Nov. However, industrial production missed expectation and dropped -0.5%, worst in 6 months. Even though TIC capital flow rebounded back to positive territory in Sep, the 26.4b inflow was much weaker than consensus of 70b. Jobless claim was also sharply higher from 319k to 339k.
There were also news that UAE central bank is considering to "review" the dollar peg due to its weakness. Though the plan is "not to drop" it, but it may reduce to "a basket which will consist of more dollars, but not totally 100 percent"
From Eurozone, ZEW economic sentiments deteriorated sharply further to -32.5, reaching a 15 year low and much weaker than expected -12. ZEW president Wolfgang Franz said that the depreciation of dollar is putting a burden on German exports and economic development may lose "considerable speed". Eurozone Sep industrial production dropped -0.7% mom, dragging yoy rate to 3.5%, also missed expected of -0.2% mom, 4.7% yoy. Though, Q3 GDP data was solid, showing 0.7% qoq, 2.6% yoy growth comparing to expectation of 0.6% qoq, 2.5% qoq. Oct HICP is confirmed to be 2.6% yoy.
Sterling had a tough week. Initially, Sterling rode on stronger than expected inflation data in Oct. CPI accelerated from 1.8% yoy to 2.1% yoy vs consensus of 1.9% yoy. RPI also climbed from 3.9% yoy to 4.2% yoy vs expectation of 4.1%. PPI input accelerated sharply from 6.5% yoy to 8.6% yoy. Output prices climbed from 2.8% yoy to 3.8% yoy. The turning point was the BoE Inflation Report, which forecasts that inflation in UK will settle at its target of 2.0%, after being pushed to above 2.0% by energy prices, assuming at least on rate cut in 2008. This prompted increased expectation that BoE will cut rates in as soon as Q1. Sterling was further pressured after disappointing retail sales which showed -0.1% contraction in Oct, dragging yoy growth from 6.0% to 4.4%.
Price actions in the Japanese yen remained larger affected by carry trades. BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected after a mere fortnight of their last meeting. The vote split was again 8-1, with ultra-hawk Atsushi Mizuno continued to be the sole dissenting vote in favor of an interest rate rise, the same as in the past six meetings. Q3 GDP data showed a strong rebound in strength with annualized GDP growth up from -1.6% to +2.6%, with 0.6% qoq growth, much stronger than consensus expectation. The data eased concern that the Japanese economy has slipped into recession but provides no solid case for near term hike from BoJ yet.
Swiss Franc was relatively quiet last week. Zew index deteriorated further from -16 to -28.9 in Nov. Retail sales slowed from 3.8% yoy growth to 3.0%.
RBA Monetary Policy Statement confirmed its tightening bias. Inflation is expected to be around 3.25% until Jun 08, up from prior estimate of 3.00%, exceeding the bank's target range of 2-3% and provides the justification for last week's rate hike. However, GDP growth forecast was revised down to 3.75% for the current fiscal year. Also, the statement noted that sentiment in global financial markets "remains fragile." After all, even though further tightening is still expected from RBA down the road, traders has pared back expectations for an immediate hike in Dec as RBA could wait-and-see first the development in the financial markets first. New Zealand retail sales was much stronger than expected at first glance, rising 1.0% mom in Sep. However, the strong data was mainly due to soaring energy and food prices. Sales excluding inflation, a measure of volumes, rose by 0.2% only and is just inline with expectation.
Focus on FOMC and BoE Minutes in a Quiet Week
Sterling was hit hard across the board last week on renewed expectation for further rate cut from BoE after dovish Inflation Report. Canadian dollar also corrected sharply, following retreat in oil prices. Carry trade unwinding, though calmed down a bit, still dragged down commodity currencies. Though, the yen ended the week mixed, weakening against Euro and dollar. Swissy was more impressive this time as it strengthened broadly. The economic calendar is relatively light this week, with market holiday in US and Japan. Nevertheless, FOMC minutes and new projections as well as BoE minutes will be featured, together with important data from US and Canada.
During the week, Fed announced the plan to improve its transparency to the markets. Firstly, the committee will double of the frequency of publishing its projections from twice a year to four times a year. Secondly, in addition to core PCE, GDP and unemployment, Fed will include headline PCE in the projection forecasts. Thirdly, the forecast horizon will be extended to three year from two. Even though a formal inflation target will be not adopted at this moment, the act is viewed as a step towards such adoption. Bernanke's emphasis on headline inflation raised some doubts on whether Fed will cut rates in Dec as markets expected. And there is further doubt after comments from Kroszner and Poole. Kroszner said that economic indicators in the coming months will reflect a "rough patch" However, that is not enough to guarantee additional rate cuts. Poole said that Fed must lead, but not follow the markets on rate policy. Even though subprime problem take time to resolve, he doesn't expect a recession yet and he doubts the need for more rate cuts. The first report will be released along with the FOMC minutes this week and will be closely watched.
Both CPI and PPI reports showed increased inflation risks in US. Headline CPI climbed from 2.8% yoy to 3.5% yoy with core CPI up from 2.1% yoy to 2.2% yoy in Oct. The usually volatile PPI was up from 4.4% yoy to 6.1% yoy with core PPI up from 2.0% yoy to 2.5% yoy. Retail sales rose 0.2% mom with ex auto sales rising 0.2% mom in Oct, not far from consensus expectation. Pending home sales surprised on the upside, recovering by 0.2% in Sep. Both NY State and Philly Fed survey beat expectation in Nov. However, industrial production missed expectation and dropped -0.5%, worst in 6 months. Even though TIC capital flow rebounded back to positive territory in Sep, the 26.4b inflow was much weaker than consensus of 70b. Jobless claim was also sharply higher from 319k to 339k.
There were also news that UAE central bank is considering to "review" the dollar peg due to its weakness. Though the plan is "not to drop" it, but it may reduce to "a basket which will consist of more dollars, but not totally 100 percent"
From Eurozone, ZEW economic sentiments deteriorated sharply further to -32.5, reaching a 15 year low and much weaker than expected -12. ZEW president Wolfgang Franz said that the depreciation of dollar is putting a burden on German exports and economic development may lose "considerable speed". Eurozone Sep industrial production dropped -0.7% mom, dragging yoy rate to 3.5%, also missed expected of -0.2% mom, 4.7% yoy. Though, Q3 GDP data was solid, showing 0.7% qoq, 2.6% yoy growth comparing to expectation of 0.6% qoq, 2.5% qoq. Oct HICP is confirmed to be 2.6% yoy.
Sterling had a tough week. Initially, Sterling rode on stronger than expected inflation data in Oct. CPI accelerated from 1.8% yoy to 2.1% yoy vs consensus of 1.9% yoy. RPI also climbed from 3.9% yoy to 4.2% yoy vs expectation of 4.1%. PPI input accelerated sharply from 6.5% yoy to 8.6% yoy. Output prices climbed from 2.8% yoy to 3.8% yoy. The turning point was the BoE Inflation Report, which forecasts that inflation in UK will settle at its target of 2.0%, after being pushed to above 2.0% by energy prices, assuming at least on rate cut in 2008. This prompted increased expectation that BoE will cut rates in as soon as Q1. Sterling was further pressured after disappointing retail sales which showed -0.1% contraction in Oct, dragging yoy growth from 6.0% to 4.4%.
Price actions in the Japanese yen remained larger affected by carry trades. BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.50% as widely expected after a mere fortnight of their last meeting. The vote split was again 8-1, with ultra-hawk Atsushi Mizuno continued to be the sole dissenting vote in favor of an interest rate rise, the same as in the past six meetings. Q3 GDP data showed a strong rebound in strength with annualized GDP growth up from -1.6% to +2.6%, with 0.6% qoq growth, much stronger than consensus expectation. The data eased concern that the Japanese economy has slipped into recession but provides no solid case for near term hike from BoJ yet.
Swiss Franc was relatively quiet last week. Zew index deteriorated further from -16 to -28.9 in Nov. Retail sales slowed from 3.8% yoy growth to 3.0%.
RBA Monetary Policy Statement confirmed its tightening bias. Inflation is expected to be around 3.25% until Jun 08, up from prior estimate of 3.00%, exceeding the bank's target range of 2-3% and provides the justification for last week's rate hike. However, GDP growth forecast was revised down to 3.75% for the current fiscal year. Also, the statement noted that sentiment in global financial markets "remains fragile." After all, even though further tightening is still expected from RBA down the road, traders has pared back expectations for an immediate hike in Dec as RBA could wait-and-see first the development in the financial markets first. New Zealand retail sales was much stronger than expected at first glance, rising 1.0% mom in Sep. However, the strong data was mainly due to soaring energy and food prices. Sales excluding inflation, a measure of volumes, rose by 0.2% only and is just inline with expectation.
EBRD increased
EBRD increased the credit limit for TransCapitalBank (TCB) under Trade Facilitation Programm (TFP) from USD 15 up to USD 30 mln.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development approved the increase of TCB's non-committed facility under TFP from USD 15 up to USD 30 mln. The maximum validity of EBRD's guarantees to be issued under TFP to support TCB's customers' export-import transactions was also extended from 2 up to 3 years. So, it enables TCB to finance not only purchase of consumer goods but also import of capital goods (e.g. equipment for SME customers). Moreover, EBRD provided TCB with an opportunity to attract bilateral loans from financial institutions available for funding of TCB's already existing and future pre-export finance and post-import finance sub-loans to Russian corporates, including local distribution of imported goods (e.g. purchase and distribution of imported cars, consumer electronics or mobile phones in Russia).
TCB joined EBRD's Trade Facilitation Program in June 2004. Using TFP instruments enabled TCB to enlarge the range of banks-partners on the international market as well as the geography of its Trade Finance operations, and to decrease the costs of financing as well as to attract new customers.
In addition to the TFP credit facility, EBRD granted TCB a US$10 million 4-year SME loan and US$5 million 7-year Mortgage loan. In July 2006 the EBRD's Board of Directors approved equity participation project with Transcapitalbank for purchase of 25% + 1 share.
The a.m. increase of the amount and terms of EBRD's TFP limit contributes to rise of TCB's competitive capacity on the Trade Finance market and strengthening TCB's ability to continue successful business development. At present TCB enjoys clean credit lines from its international counterparties with total volume of up to USD 200 mln.
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development approved the increase of TCB's non-committed facility under TFP from USD 15 up to USD 30 mln. The maximum validity of EBRD's guarantees to be issued under TFP to support TCB's customers' export-import transactions was also extended from 2 up to 3 years. So, it enables TCB to finance not only purchase of consumer goods but also import of capital goods (e.g. equipment for SME customers). Moreover, EBRD provided TCB with an opportunity to attract bilateral loans from financial institutions available for funding of TCB's already existing and future pre-export finance and post-import finance sub-loans to Russian corporates, including local distribution of imported goods (e.g. purchase and distribution of imported cars, consumer electronics or mobile phones in Russia).
TCB joined EBRD's Trade Facilitation Program in June 2004. Using TFP instruments enabled TCB to enlarge the range of banks-partners on the international market as well as the geography of its Trade Finance operations, and to decrease the costs of financing as well as to attract new customers.
In addition to the TFP credit facility, EBRD granted TCB a US$10 million 4-year SME loan and US$5 million 7-year Mortgage loan. In July 2006 the EBRD's Board of Directors approved equity participation project with Transcapitalbank for purchase of 25% + 1 share.
The a.m. increase of the amount and terms of EBRD's TFP limit contributes to rise of TCB's competitive capacity on the Trade Finance market and strengthening TCB's ability to continue successful business development. At present TCB enjoys clean credit lines from its international counterparties with total volume of up to USD 200 mln.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
MortgagePro News
Welcome To MortgagePro News !!
Welcome to MortgagePro News (MPN), your Business Resource On The Internet. Are you feeling the pressure of the decline in the mortgage industry? Are you wondering where your next lead for your mortgage business will come from? Are you afraid you will not be in business by the end of the year? Do you take your cell phone to bed with you to make sure you do not miss a call?
MPN is here to help. We provide the resources to help keep you on top of what is happening in the mortgage industry, the marketing tools to get more leads for mortgage, and the training to help you make your business Thrive Now!!
How Will You Weather The New Mortgage Climate?
At MortgagePro News (MPN), we are here to help you learn how to make a down market work to your advantage. Many mortgage professionals, ranging from loan officers, loan originators, loan processors, branch managers, brokers and agents got into the mortgage business when the real estate market was booming. Now that the market is in decline and the subprime woes are all over the news, new and experienced mortgage professionals alike are having major problems, ranging from keeping their pipeline full and getting mortgage leads, to being overwhelmed keeping their business running smoothly while trying to do the marketing and sales on top of their daily business!! Many of them are leaving the mortgage business completely. Could this happen to you?
Are you going to have to leave this business behind?
The truth is, if you are a mortgage professional, you do not have to leave the business. Now is actually the best time to be in the mortgage business. By learning how to change your focus and apply some cost effective marketing techniques, you will not only survive but will actually thrive! With the right focus and systems in place you can get the mortgage leads in your area to come to you. The key is to be open to learning. Continually read books, blogs, and newsletters. Take classes, go to seminars, and join mastermind groups. Pick a niche that you enjoy and learn as much as possible about that niche.
In reality, learning will come easily and be a natural progression as you practice your trade. However, you don't want to stop there, you also need to expand outside of your comfort zone and learn how to market yourself and your business.
If you take the time, are willing to continue to learn, and focus on a niche you will become known as the expert. You will no longer have to compete on price. The mortgage leads in your niche will seek you out and be willing to pay a premium for your services. You, as the expert, will be able to choose the clients you want to work with.
Welcome to MortgagePro News (MPN), your Business Resource On The Internet. Are you feeling the pressure of the decline in the mortgage industry? Are you wondering where your next lead for your mortgage business will come from? Are you afraid you will not be in business by the end of the year? Do you take your cell phone to bed with you to make sure you do not miss a call?
MPN is here to help. We provide the resources to help keep you on top of what is happening in the mortgage industry, the marketing tools to get more leads for mortgage, and the training to help you make your business Thrive Now!!
How Will You Weather The New Mortgage Climate?
At MortgagePro News (MPN), we are here to help you learn how to make a down market work to your advantage. Many mortgage professionals, ranging from loan officers, loan originators, loan processors, branch managers, brokers and agents got into the mortgage business when the real estate market was booming. Now that the market is in decline and the subprime woes are all over the news, new and experienced mortgage professionals alike are having major problems, ranging from keeping their pipeline full and getting mortgage leads, to being overwhelmed keeping their business running smoothly while trying to do the marketing and sales on top of their daily business!! Many of them are leaving the mortgage business completely. Could this happen to you?
Are you going to have to leave this business behind?
The truth is, if you are a mortgage professional, you do not have to leave the business. Now is actually the best time to be in the mortgage business. By learning how to change your focus and apply some cost effective marketing techniques, you will not only survive but will actually thrive! With the right focus and systems in place you can get the mortgage leads in your area to come to you. The key is to be open to learning. Continually read books, blogs, and newsletters. Take classes, go to seminars, and join mastermind groups. Pick a niche that you enjoy and learn as much as possible about that niche.
In reality, learning will come easily and be a natural progression as you practice your trade. However, you don't want to stop there, you also need to expand outside of your comfort zone and learn how to market yourself and your business.
If you take the time, are willing to continue to learn, and focus on a niche you will become known as the expert. You will no longer have to compete on price. The mortgage leads in your niche will seek you out and be willing to pay a premium for your services. You, as the expert, will be able to choose the clients you want to work with.
Bernanke Kills Any Chance for a Dollar Rally
Bernanke Kills Any Chance for a Dollar Rally
The US dollar remained weak as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke killed any chance for a dollar rally. In his testimony to Congress today, Bernanke commented on the upside risks to inflation but focused more on the downside risks to growth. More specifically, the Fed Chairman expects growth to slow noticeably in the fourth quarter, which confirms his dovishness. If he had done the opposite and focused more on inflation like his counterparts in the Eurozone and Australia, the dollar could have rallied. However he chose to spend his time expressing concern that higher energy prices, tighter credit and continued weakness in the US housing market would lead to softer consumer spending. This coincides with the survey results from 10 of the nation’s largest retailers, 7 of which including Wal-Mart and Macy’s reported sales below forecasts. For dollar bears still looking for a recession, the Fed’s acknowledgement that consumer spending could be at risk indicate that they haven’t completely ruled out another rate cut. Although extremely volatile, Fed funds future are now pricing in a 90 percent chance for an interest rate cut next month. We have seen these expectations turn on a dime over the past few weeks so there is only so much credit that we can give to this data especially since we will not be receiving the most up to date retail sales and inflation reports until next week. Rising gasoline prices are becoming a growing problem; over the past 2 weeks, average gas prices according to AAA have increased 15 cents in California. In Santa Cruz, the average price per gallon is $3.37 and in Gorda, California, some drivers are paying up to $5 a gallon. Winter heating bills across the nation are expected to rise as much as 25 percent according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest monthly forecast. As a result, our call for EUR/USD to rise to 1.50 remains intact even though tomorrow’s data has a better chance of being dollar positive than negative. We are expecting the release of trade balance numbers for the month of September as well as import prices and consumer confidence. The recent weakness of the US dollar should help to improve the trade balance and drive up import prices. Consumer confidence however will probably suffer.
3 Reasons for the Euro to Hit 1.50
In terms of the Euro, there are three reasons why we think the currency will continue to rise. First, economic data remains very strong with the German trade balance hitting a 6 month of high in September. Growth in exports to emerging markets like China and Russia are picking up the slack for softer demand from the US. Second, the ECB remains hawkish. Even though they left interest rates unchanged at 4 percent today, unlike Bernanke, ECB President Trichet is still more worried about inflation than growth. The ECB wants to wait for more information before deciding what to do next with interest rates, so don't expect a move in December. For the time being, they are still leaving the door open to raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year. In regards to the Euro, Trichet did not mention the currency at all in his introductory statement. Only in the question and answer session was he forced to address dollar weakness and euro strength. Trichet did his best to dance around the question about exchange rates, repeating his stance that disorderly movements are undesirable and the strong dollar is in the interest of the US. It is not a coincidence then that Trichet avoided talking about the Euro because inflation is still a big problem and they need a strong currency to offset inflationary pressures. The third reason why the Euro will continue to rise and the dollar will continue to fall is because our latest FXCM SSI index is giving a strong signal to buy the EUR/USD for a test of 1.50
Carry Trades Rebound as Stocks Reverse Intraday
US stocks continue to be extremely volatile with the Dow down as much as 220 points intraday before reversing those losses to end down only 33 points. Unsurprisingly this led to equally volatile price action in the Japanese Yen crosses, which are all up on the day with the exception of AUDJPY and CADJPY. Last night’s Japanese economic data was mixed and provided little direction for the Japanese Yen. Tonight we have the Eco Watchers survey and unfortunately the man on the street probably sees more difficult times ahead. Although Japanese corporations are reporting stronger profits and Tokyo is booming, economic activity outside of the capital teeters on recession. Wage growth remains low, forcing the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.
British Pound: The Strongest of the Bunch?
The British pound hit another 26 year high despite softer house prices, leading indicators and an uneventful Bank of England interest rate decision. The strength of the British pound seems to really be coming from overall demand for high yielding currencies and distaste for the US dollar. Unlike the Eurozone which has actually been reporting stronger economic data, the continual weakness of UK data raises the risk of a sharper slide in the GBP/USD should there be any bit of a dollar rally. Tomorrow we are expecting UK trade data, which is also expected to be weak, but US fundamentals will continue to dominate the currency pair’s price action.
Canadian and Australian Dollars Continue to Lose Ground
With commodity prices basically unchanged, fundamentals have finally taken hold of the commodity currencies. The Canadian and Australian dollars are both softer on the heels of weaker than expected Australian employment numbers and Canadian housing market data. Both housing starts and house prices deteriorated. The New Zealand dollar was the only commodity currency to rally as the unemployment rate fell to another record low. Tomorrow there will be no Australian or New Zealand data released but Canada will be reporting their trade balance for the month of September. The recent strength of the CAD is expected to drive the surplus lower.
The US dollar remained weak as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke killed any chance for a dollar rally. In his testimony to Congress today, Bernanke commented on the upside risks to inflation but focused more on the downside risks to growth. More specifically, the Fed Chairman expects growth to slow noticeably in the fourth quarter, which confirms his dovishness. If he had done the opposite and focused more on inflation like his counterparts in the Eurozone and Australia, the dollar could have rallied. However he chose to spend his time expressing concern that higher energy prices, tighter credit and continued weakness in the US housing market would lead to softer consumer spending. This coincides with the survey results from 10 of the nation’s largest retailers, 7 of which including Wal-Mart and Macy’s reported sales below forecasts. For dollar bears still looking for a recession, the Fed’s acknowledgement that consumer spending could be at risk indicate that they haven’t completely ruled out another rate cut. Although extremely volatile, Fed funds future are now pricing in a 90 percent chance for an interest rate cut next month. We have seen these expectations turn on a dime over the past few weeks so there is only so much credit that we can give to this data especially since we will not be receiving the most up to date retail sales and inflation reports until next week. Rising gasoline prices are becoming a growing problem; over the past 2 weeks, average gas prices according to AAA have increased 15 cents in California. In Santa Cruz, the average price per gallon is $3.37 and in Gorda, California, some drivers are paying up to $5 a gallon. Winter heating bills across the nation are expected to rise as much as 25 percent according to the Energy Information Administration’s latest monthly forecast. As a result, our call for EUR/USD to rise to 1.50 remains intact even though tomorrow’s data has a better chance of being dollar positive than negative. We are expecting the release of trade balance numbers for the month of September as well as import prices and consumer confidence. The recent weakness of the US dollar should help to improve the trade balance and drive up import prices. Consumer confidence however will probably suffer.
3 Reasons for the Euro to Hit 1.50
In terms of the Euro, there are three reasons why we think the currency will continue to rise. First, economic data remains very strong with the German trade balance hitting a 6 month of high in September. Growth in exports to emerging markets like China and Russia are picking up the slack for softer demand from the US. Second, the ECB remains hawkish. Even though they left interest rates unchanged at 4 percent today, unlike Bernanke, ECB President Trichet is still more worried about inflation than growth. The ECB wants to wait for more information before deciding what to do next with interest rates, so don't expect a move in December. For the time being, they are still leaving the door open to raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year. In regards to the Euro, Trichet did not mention the currency at all in his introductory statement. Only in the question and answer session was he forced to address dollar weakness and euro strength. Trichet did his best to dance around the question about exchange rates, repeating his stance that disorderly movements are undesirable and the strong dollar is in the interest of the US. It is not a coincidence then that Trichet avoided talking about the Euro because inflation is still a big problem and they need a strong currency to offset inflationary pressures. The third reason why the Euro will continue to rise and the dollar will continue to fall is because our latest FXCM SSI index is giving a strong signal to buy the EUR/USD for a test of 1.50
Carry Trades Rebound as Stocks Reverse Intraday
US stocks continue to be extremely volatile with the Dow down as much as 220 points intraday before reversing those losses to end down only 33 points. Unsurprisingly this led to equally volatile price action in the Japanese Yen crosses, which are all up on the day with the exception of AUDJPY and CADJPY. Last night’s Japanese economic data was mixed and provided little direction for the Japanese Yen. Tonight we have the Eco Watchers survey and unfortunately the man on the street probably sees more difficult times ahead. Although Japanese corporations are reporting stronger profits and Tokyo is booming, economic activity outside of the capital teeters on recession. Wage growth remains low, forcing the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future.
British Pound: The Strongest of the Bunch?
The British pound hit another 26 year high despite softer house prices, leading indicators and an uneventful Bank of England interest rate decision. The strength of the British pound seems to really be coming from overall demand for high yielding currencies and distaste for the US dollar. Unlike the Eurozone which has actually been reporting stronger economic data, the continual weakness of UK data raises the risk of a sharper slide in the GBP/USD should there be any bit of a dollar rally. Tomorrow we are expecting UK trade data, which is also expected to be weak, but US fundamentals will continue to dominate the currency pair’s price action.
Canadian and Australian Dollars Continue to Lose Ground
With commodity prices basically unchanged, fundamentals have finally taken hold of the commodity currencies. The Canadian and Australian dollars are both softer on the heels of weaker than expected Australian employment numbers and Canadian housing market data. Both housing starts and house prices deteriorated. The New Zealand dollar was the only commodity currency to rally as the unemployment rate fell to another record low. Tomorrow there will be no Australian or New Zealand data released but Canada will be reporting their trade balance for the month of September. The recent strength of the CAD is expected to drive the surplus lower.
Euro Holds Its Ground as Markets Await Trichet
Euro Holds Its Ground as Markets Await Trichet
A very quiet night of consolidation in Asian and early European sessions today, after last night’s fireworks that took the EURUSD to new record highs above the 1.4700 figure.
Talking Points• Japanese Yen: Holds below 113.00 as risk aversion sets in• Australian Dollar: Employment less than forecast but growth continues• Pound: Holds 2.10 ahead of BoE• Euro: Consolidates at 1.4650• US Dollar: Bernanke testimony center stage
A very quiet night of consolidation in Asian and early European sessions today, after last night’s fireworks that took the EURUSD to new record highs above the 1.4700 figure. The currency markets are now focused on guidance from monetary authorities as we have rate announcements from both BoE and ECB as well as Congressional testimony from Chairman Ben Bernanke. In UK the BoE is expected to keep rates stationary at 5.75% continuing to maintain the highest yield in the G-4 universe. Sterling has been remarkably resilient during yesterday’s round of risk aversion maintaining the 2.100 level for most of the day. With house price values continuing to record double digit annual gains, most currency analysts do not expected the UK central bank to lower rates this year, despite the fact that Manufacturing and Service PMI data is starting to show significant signs of slowdown. The BoE typically provides no commentary with its policy announcement, so traders will have to wait for two weeks to ascertain the true state of mind of UK central bankers when the minutes of the meeting are made public.The ECB presents much greater possibility of event risk. While almost no one in the market expects the Europeans to hike rates today, the ECB generally likes to prepare the market for any future policy actions at the post announcement press conference. It will be interesting to see if Mr. Trichet will ignore the record euro strength and signal a possible rate hike in December. ECB headline inflation remains well above the central banks self imposed target of 2% and all things being equal Mr. Trichet would no doubt prefer to raise rates another 25bp. However, given the tremendous amount of dollar bearish sentiment in the market, his comments could push the EURUSD to 1.500 within a matter of days were he to maintain his hawkish posture.It remains to be seen whether the export driven EZ economy could absorb such a massive exchange rate disadvantage for much longer There are clear early signs that the manufacturing sector is beginning to feel the pain if the high euro, as PMI gauges hover near the 50 boom/bust line. Nevertheless, Mr. Trichet whose first policy allegiance is to price stability, may choose to err on the side of controlling inflation rather than stimulating growth. For the time being such an outcome would likely propel the euro higher as markets continue to price in the compression of interest rate differentials in the pair.
A very quiet night of consolidation in Asian and early European sessions today, after last night’s fireworks that took the EURUSD to new record highs above the 1.4700 figure.
Talking Points• Japanese Yen: Holds below 113.00 as risk aversion sets in• Australian Dollar: Employment less than forecast but growth continues• Pound: Holds 2.10 ahead of BoE• Euro: Consolidates at 1.4650• US Dollar: Bernanke testimony center stage
A very quiet night of consolidation in Asian and early European sessions today, after last night’s fireworks that took the EURUSD to new record highs above the 1.4700 figure. The currency markets are now focused on guidance from monetary authorities as we have rate announcements from both BoE and ECB as well as Congressional testimony from Chairman Ben Bernanke. In UK the BoE is expected to keep rates stationary at 5.75% continuing to maintain the highest yield in the G-4 universe. Sterling has been remarkably resilient during yesterday’s round of risk aversion maintaining the 2.100 level for most of the day. With house price values continuing to record double digit annual gains, most currency analysts do not expected the UK central bank to lower rates this year, despite the fact that Manufacturing and Service PMI data is starting to show significant signs of slowdown. The BoE typically provides no commentary with its policy announcement, so traders will have to wait for two weeks to ascertain the true state of mind of UK central bankers when the minutes of the meeting are made public.The ECB presents much greater possibility of event risk. While almost no one in the market expects the Europeans to hike rates today, the ECB generally likes to prepare the market for any future policy actions at the post announcement press conference. It will be interesting to see if Mr. Trichet will ignore the record euro strength and signal a possible rate hike in December. ECB headline inflation remains well above the central banks self imposed target of 2% and all things being equal Mr. Trichet would no doubt prefer to raise rates another 25bp. However, given the tremendous amount of dollar bearish sentiment in the market, his comments could push the EURUSD to 1.500 within a matter of days were he to maintain his hawkish posture.It remains to be seen whether the export driven EZ economy could absorb such a massive exchange rate disadvantage for much longer There are clear early signs that the manufacturing sector is beginning to feel the pain if the high euro, as PMI gauges hover near the 50 boom/bust line. Nevertheless, Mr. Trichet whose first policy allegiance is to price stability, may choose to err on the side of controlling inflation rather than stimulating growth. For the time being such an outcome would likely propel the euro higher as markets continue to price in the compression of interest rate differentials in the pair.
Euro: What Did ECB President Trichet Say?
Euro: What Did ECB President Trichet Say?
Today is all about central banks. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both left interest rates unchanged - which was right in line with the market's expectations. Trichet's speech which was one of the most anticipated event risks this week but it proved to be a non-event. For a central banker like Trichet, this may be the most desired market reaction because central bankers hate volatility.
Ultimately Trichet is very worried about inflation but at the same time he feels that oil and commodity prices could weigh on growth. As a result, he did not indicate that raising rates was their immediate intention (note: he did not use the words strong vigilance). Instead, the ECB wants to wait for more information before deciding what to do next with interest rates, so don't expect a move in December. For the time being, they are still leaving the door open to raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year. In regards to the Euro, Trichet did not mention the currency at all in his introductory statement. Only in the question and answer session was he forced to address dollar weakness and euro strength. Trichet did his best to dance around the question about exchange rates, repeating his stance that disorderly movements are undesirable and the strong dollar is in the interest of the US. It is not a coincidence that Trichet avoided talking about the Euro because inflation is still a big problem and they need a strong Euro to bring inflationary pressures down. Overall his tone is still more hawkish than dovish and even though we are disappointed that he did not say that strong vigilance is needed towards inflation, ECB policy remains positive for the Euro. Next up is the Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke who will be addressing the Joint Economic
Here are more details on what Trichet said:
- Recent data confirm upside price risk in mid-term
- They stand ready to counter upside inflation risks
- Data supports favorable mid-term growth outlook
- Market turmoil means outlook now more uncertain
- ECB needs more information before deciding policy
- Will monitor all developments very closely
- Firm and timely ECB action will prevent price risks
- ECB will act to anchor inflation expectations and this is key amid volatility
- ECB needs to pay great attention to markets in period ahead
- Economic outlook remains solid and sentiment indicators point to sustained growth and they are still above historical average
- ECB sees growth around potential next year and consumption growth will add to expansion
- Balance risks to growth are on downside
- Level of uncertainty around economic outlook high - the risks to growth are from oil and commodities
- Sharp inflation increase is a concern and they think that inflation will be significantly above 3% in coming months
- Additional information needed to decide on rates and the ECB will ensure that price risks don't materialize.
- Disorderly movements of exchange rates are undesirable for movements to economic growth, brutal moves never welcome and recent moves have been abrupt
- Strong dollar is in the interest of the US
Today is all about central banks. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England both left interest rates unchanged - which was right in line with the market's expectations. Trichet's speech which was one of the most anticipated event risks this week but it proved to be a non-event. For a central banker like Trichet, this may be the most desired market reaction because central bankers hate volatility.
Ultimately Trichet is very worried about inflation but at the same time he feels that oil and commodity prices could weigh on growth. As a result, he did not indicate that raising rates was their immediate intention (note: he did not use the words strong vigilance). Instead, the ECB wants to wait for more information before deciding what to do next with interest rates, so don't expect a move in December. For the time being, they are still leaving the door open to raise interest rates in the first quarter of next year. In regards to the Euro, Trichet did not mention the currency at all in his introductory statement. Only in the question and answer session was he forced to address dollar weakness and euro strength. Trichet did his best to dance around the question about exchange rates, repeating his stance that disorderly movements are undesirable and the strong dollar is in the interest of the US. It is not a coincidence that Trichet avoided talking about the Euro because inflation is still a big problem and they need a strong Euro to bring inflationary pressures down. Overall his tone is still more hawkish than dovish and even though we are disappointed that he did not say that strong vigilance is needed towards inflation, ECB policy remains positive for the Euro. Next up is the Federal Reserve's Ben Bernanke who will be addressing the Joint Economic
Here are more details on what Trichet said:
- Recent data confirm upside price risk in mid-term
- They stand ready to counter upside inflation risks
- Data supports favorable mid-term growth outlook
- Market turmoil means outlook now more uncertain
- ECB needs more information before deciding policy
- Will monitor all developments very closely
- Firm and timely ECB action will prevent price risks
- ECB will act to anchor inflation expectations and this is key amid volatility
- ECB needs to pay great attention to markets in period ahead
- Economic outlook remains solid and sentiment indicators point to sustained growth and they are still above historical average
- ECB sees growth around potential next year and consumption growth will add to expansion
- Balance risks to growth are on downside
- Level of uncertainty around economic outlook high - the risks to growth are from oil and commodities
- Sharp inflation increase is a concern and they think that inflation will be significantly above 3% in coming months
- Additional information needed to decide on rates and the ECB will ensure that price risks don't materialize.
- Disorderly movements of exchange rates are undesirable for movements to economic growth, brutal moves never welcome and recent moves have been abrupt
- Strong dollar is in the interest of the US
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Government ignores
Govt ignores bedridden 50’s democracy struggle veteran
BHARATPUR, Nov 2 - Lekhmani Sedhain of Bhandara, Chitwan, a veteran of Nepal's struggle for democracy, has been bed ridden since the last 24 years due to poverty.
"I remained underground for most of my life," said Sedhain, adding, "I hid for the people in the past and now I am lost in my own problems," he lamented.
Sedhain advocated constituent assembly election in 1951 when he was chairman of Bargiya Gaun Sudhar Sangh. He entered Nepali Congress politics in 1958 after he met BP Koirala.
Sedhain was arrested 19 times, imprisoned 13 times and remained underground for 10 years.
Soon after Mahendra's royal coup in 1960, the then panchayat government seized all his wealth and property. He remembered that the government had seized 84 ropanis of land and valuables worth rupees 800,000 at that time.
After the National Reconciliation policy adopted by BP Koirala in 1976, most people got back their seized property. "But the government refused to return mine on the charge of treason," he said.
Right now, he suffers from diabetes, blood pressure, ulcer and problems in the urinary system. He can hardly afford treatment now.
"I heard that Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala had decided in 2000 to provide medical expense for me but I have not got it so far," he said
BHARATPUR, Nov 2 - Lekhmani Sedhain of Bhandara, Chitwan, a veteran of Nepal's struggle for democracy, has been bed ridden since the last 24 years due to poverty.
"I remained underground for most of my life," said Sedhain, adding, "I hid for the people in the past and now I am lost in my own problems," he lamented.
Sedhain advocated constituent assembly election in 1951 when he was chairman of Bargiya Gaun Sudhar Sangh. He entered Nepali Congress politics in 1958 after he met BP Koirala.
Sedhain was arrested 19 times, imprisoned 13 times and remained underground for 10 years.
Soon after Mahendra's royal coup in 1960, the then panchayat government seized all his wealth and property. He remembered that the government had seized 84 ropanis of land and valuables worth rupees 800,000 at that time.
After the National Reconciliation policy adopted by BP Koirala in 1976, most people got back their seized property. "But the government refused to return mine on the charge of treason," he said.
Right now, he suffers from diabetes, blood pressure, ulcer and problems in the urinary system. He can hardly afford treatment now.
"I heard that Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala had decided in 2000 to provide medical expense for me but I have not got it so far," he said
Dithers on date
NC agrees republic proclamation
KATHMANDU, Nov 2 - The seven political parties have arrived at a consensus to proclaim a republic from parliament but difference still persists on the date of enforcement. This led to adjournment of the special-session meeting, which was set to decide the fate of the Maoist proposals for a republic and a proportional election system, till Friday.
Following bilateral and multi-lateral parleys, Nepali Congress leaders agreed to proclaim a republic through parliament but leave the implementation till after the first meeting of the elected constituent assembly, in an attempt to avert a possible split among parties over the issue of republic.
All the parties in the Seven-Party Alliance agreed to the option but the Maoists insisted on immediate enforcement of the proclamation, a stance that was rejected by NC leaders.
The parties ultimately agreed to use up a night and a morning to explore a meeting point. "There was intense discussion on the issue today. And we agreed to continue deliberations till tomorrow to try to find consensus," said Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda. He said whether an understanding is reached among the parties or not, the session would conclude on Friday.
NC leaders agreed the option after intense pressure from the left allies who even threatened to come together during voting. "All the parties in parliament that accept a republic and a proportional system will come together during the voting in case it does take place," said Prachanda after a meeting of all the ruling left parties at the CPN (Maoist) parliamentary party office.
He said the left parties could go for a single proposal or vote for either the Maoist or UML proposal. "The technicality will be decided later." He, however, said the possibility of an understanding with the Nepali Congress has not been ruled out yet.
But UML leader Amrit Bohara said his party has not immediately accepted the Maoist proposal for unity among the leftists alone. "We cannot go against the proposal for a republic but we have emphasized unity of all the Loktantrik parties, not only the leftists," said Bohara.
The Maoists initially wanted the parliamentary session prorogued Thursday but they accepted a request by UML and NC leaders to prolong the session by a day to avert a division of votes among the parties in the SPA.
"It was postponed till Friday through all-party consensus," said Speaker Subas Nembang.
He said if no consensus is reached by Friday, the proposals tabled by the Maoists and the amendment proposal tabled by the UML, National People's Front and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party will be put to a vote.
"As per our practice, the amendment proposal will be presented turn by turn before the main proposals," said Nembang. He said a common proposal also can be prepared if the House demands a merger of the main proposal and amendments.
"But the Maoists continue insisting that the interim parliament must proclaim a republic," Jhala Nath Khanal said, adding, "We couldn't see any space for consensus." He said the parties are likely to go for a vote tomorrow.
There was no serious discussion on the issue of electoral system Thursday.
Members kept on discussing till late evening, until their leaders agreed to postpone the session till 11 am Friday.
KATHMANDU, Nov 2 - The seven political parties have arrived at a consensus to proclaim a republic from parliament but difference still persists on the date of enforcement. This led to adjournment of the special-session meeting, which was set to decide the fate of the Maoist proposals for a republic and a proportional election system, till Friday.
Following bilateral and multi-lateral parleys, Nepali Congress leaders agreed to proclaim a republic through parliament but leave the implementation till after the first meeting of the elected constituent assembly, in an attempt to avert a possible split among parties over the issue of republic.
All the parties in the Seven-Party Alliance agreed to the option but the Maoists insisted on immediate enforcement of the proclamation, a stance that was rejected by NC leaders.
The parties ultimately agreed to use up a night and a morning to explore a meeting point. "There was intense discussion on the issue today. And we agreed to continue deliberations till tomorrow to try to find consensus," said Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda. He said whether an understanding is reached among the parties or not, the session would conclude on Friday.
NC leaders agreed the option after intense pressure from the left allies who even threatened to come together during voting. "All the parties in parliament that accept a republic and a proportional system will come together during the voting in case it does take place," said Prachanda after a meeting of all the ruling left parties at the CPN (Maoist) parliamentary party office.
He said the left parties could go for a single proposal or vote for either the Maoist or UML proposal. "The technicality will be decided later." He, however, said the possibility of an understanding with the Nepali Congress has not been ruled out yet.
But UML leader Amrit Bohara said his party has not immediately accepted the Maoist proposal for unity among the leftists alone. "We cannot go against the proposal for a republic but we have emphasized unity of all the Loktantrik parties, not only the leftists," said Bohara.
The Maoists initially wanted the parliamentary session prorogued Thursday but they accepted a request by UML and NC leaders to prolong the session by a day to avert a division of votes among the parties in the SPA.
"It was postponed till Friday through all-party consensus," said Speaker Subas Nembang.
He said if no consensus is reached by Friday, the proposals tabled by the Maoists and the amendment proposal tabled by the UML, National People's Front and Nepal Workers and Peasants Party will be put to a vote.
"As per our practice, the amendment proposal will be presented turn by turn before the main proposals," said Nembang. He said a common proposal also can be prepared if the House demands a merger of the main proposal and amendments.
"But the Maoists continue insisting that the interim parliament must proclaim a republic," Jhala Nath Khanal said, adding, "We couldn't see any space for consensus." He said the parties are likely to go for a vote tomorrow.
There was no serious discussion on the issue of electoral system Thursday.
Members kept on discussing till late evening, until their leaders agreed to postpone the session till 11 am Friday.
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